The tide has turned

We are disagreeing about it in this house and we don’t even live there any more. It’s a hot topic alright, Brexit.  Who would have imagined that Britain would vote out of it. I would have voted to remain if I still lived there. Having said that, I would never have guessed that so many people wanted out, that so many people were frankly so absolutely pi**ed off with the establishment and the prospects presented for them and their kids.

So the German in the house thinks that it will all be fine, Brexit will happen whenever there is a politician brave enough to  pull the Article 50 trigger ) that all of the unrest and uncertainty will blow over quickly. Britain is strong economically, with strong links to America and of course the Commonwealth. After shock and a bit of governmental freefall will come stability and sure-footedness.

I also think it will be fine.  Eventually. Britain will surely pull through this to be stronger than ever. It’s a special country, very European in spirit, enormously welcoming up to now, wealthy with a thriving economy and holds the financial hub of Europe. With a mainly service economy, it’s a massive importer of goods. European leaders are all playing hardball now saying no concessions or easy ride but doesn’t Britain import something like a quarter of the German car industry output annually. There’s a bit of an incentive for Merkel to negotiate. And with 27 countries in the European Council, many of which want decentralised power on immigration, surely the hard-line Europeanists will have to get over themselves, listen and amend accordingly.

The interesting bit is the push this week by the European leaders for Britain to trigger Article 50 by September. American elections are coming up. Imagine if Trump gets in to the White House, he will be a great supporter of Brexit Britain and will surely go to great lengths ( once someone explains it all to him for the 15th time ) to build a special partnership with the U.K. in terms of investment and trade.  If I was Merkel, I would be nervous about how that will impact Britain’s willingness to tow the line to access the EU market. Interesting times we live in.

 

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